Canadian National Unity Crisis
Bold words from Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. What does she really mean?
Premier Danielle Smith issued a statement this afternoon after meeting with Prime Minister Carney. She made clear something that has been fairly evident for a while — Alberta feels that Ottawa doesn’t respect its contributions to the country. The Premier clearly stated what Alberta expects from Ottawa to mend the relationship. She threatened that if the next federal government isn’t willing to meet her demands, Canada would face a “national unity crisis.” Smith’s full list of demands is as follows:
Guaranteeing Alberta full access to oil and gas corridors to the north, east, and west
Repealing Bill C-69 (aka. “no new pipelines act”)
Lifting the tanker ban off the BC coast
Eliminating the oil and gas emissions cap, which is a production cap
Scrapping the so-called Clean Electricity Regulations
Ending the prohibition on single use plastics
Abandoning the net-zero car mandate
Returning oversight of the industrial carbon tax to the provinces
Halting the federal censorship of energy companies
It’s worth mentioning that while most of these policies have been implemented by the Liberal Party of Canada, Pierre Poilievre and his Conservative Party have already mentioned plans to address some of these issues.
Smith has been increasingly hostile toward the federal government recently. This hostility culminated in her trip to the U.S. while the federal government was negotiating trade with U.S. President Donald Trump. She also resisted discussions with the federal government regarding Canada’s response to American tariffs, refusing to sign the joint letter from the federal government and provincial premiers.
When Trump announced the tariffs, he stated that only a 10% tariff would apply to Canadian oil — almost entirely supplied by Alberta — which is down from the previously stated 25%. This suggests that Smith’s negotiations with Trump may have had some effect.
The most significant question raised by this statement is: what did Smith mean by “national unity crisis”?
It’s no secret that Alberta has periodically flirted with the idea of seceding from Canada. Key points of contention include equalization payments, with Alberta contributing the largest share to the federal government while many other provinces receive these payments.
A 2023 survey by Research Co. and Glacier Media showed that 26% of Albertans thought their province would be better off as an American state. The survey was repeated in December of 2024 and found this number increased to 30%. While substantial, it doesn’t indicate there’d be enough support to win a referendum on the matter.
Posts on X from early 2025 cite an unscientific poll by user @Martyupnorth_2, claiming 60% of over 2,500 respondents favored U.S. statehood for Alberta, with only 10% wanting to stay in Canada. While this reflects vocal sentiment on the platform, it lacks the rigor of formal polls. It should be noted that this account has a strong bias toward the political right which further invalidates the results.
Some speculate that Smith may have discussed such a move with Trump in exchange for lower tariffs, though there is no evidence to support this.
Additionally, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe has been critical of the federal government recently. For example, after Canada imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, China retaliated with tariffs on Canadian canola, which has significant repercussions for Saskatchewan’s farming industry. Some speculate that if Alberta were to secede and join the U.S., Saskatchewan might follow suit.
While Smith’s statements may be political posturing, the possibility of behind-the-scenes agreements cannot be entirely dismissed, though there is no concrete evidence to support such claims.