Donald Trump Pushes Canadians Toward the European Union

As Canada seeks to strengthen economic ties with other nations as a result of President Trump's repeated threats and economic pressure an interesting idea has keeps coming up.

Donald Trump wants Canada to become the 51st state. However, in his desire to make such a transition happen, he may be pushing Canada away. Canada and the United States enjoy perhaps the closest trading partnership of any two nations throughout history. When President Trump decided to implement tariffs and threats against Canada, he threatened that relationship.

As the threats became reality, Canada found itself forced to explore other trading partners and build stronger relationships abroad. One idea that has started to come up more and more often is Canada joining the EU. Abacus Data recently published the results of their survey of Canadians regarding this hypothetical scenario and found that an astounding 46% were supportive of EU membership for Canada, with 29% being against it and 25% being unsure.

Euractiv contacted the European Commission about the poll, and Commission spokesperson Paula Pinho said: "We are honoured with the results of such a poll. It shows the attractiveness of the EU. It shows the appreciation of a very large share of Canadian citizens for the EU – for its values."

Another interesting finding from their survey was the general disdain Canadians feel toward their southern neighbors. Only 34% of Canadians reported having positive feelings toward the United States, placing it lower than the UK, EU, and Mexico, and slightly above China.

Joining the EU is a complex, multi-year process but would remove many barriers to trade. It would also mean the eventual adoption of the euro, which could help stabilize the Canadian currency by aligning Canadian monetary policy with the Maastricht criteria.

The Canadian dollar has had a high positive correlation with the price of oil: as the price of oil has gone up, so has the dollar, and when oil prices fall, so does the dollar. Current threats of tariffs from America have recently disrupted that trend, but this is largely due to over 20% of Canadian exports being based on the oil and gas industry. Ninety-one percent of those exports go to the United States and are currently under threat of American tariffs.

So, while joining the EU would help alleviate some pressure from the United States, it doesn’t completely solve the problem until Canada can figure out how to reliably and economically get its oil products to Europe. As it stands now, the infrastructure doesn’t exist to get it there in a cost-effective manner.

There are also some negatives to consider with joining the EU. Canada would be giving up its right to regulate many of its industries, as they would now be subject to EU laws. Implementing some of these laws and regulations would be costly. While EU members do retain more of their own sovereignty than a U.S. state, it would not be entirely dissimilar to joining the United States. With no ocean separating Canada from the United States, if creating an economic union is the solution, maybe becoming the 51st state is, in fact, the better option.

The fact of the matter is that Canadians tend to lean left politically. While the United States is currently governed by the right-wing Republican Party, the EU is generally more left-leaning, which more closely aligns with Canadians' preferences. Governance does change in the long term, but it’s also possible that Canadians' low opinion of the United States is to blame.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is travelling to Europe next week. While the exact purpose of the trip isn’t known at this time, it’s reasonable to assume he will be discussing the American tariffs and how to strengthen Canadian-European relations. Perhaps EU membership for Canada may also be discussed.