Trump's New America
Reshaping the Western political landscape
It is interesting that Mark Carney chose to travel to France and the UK during his first days as Prime Minister of Canada. U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced that “if the EU works with Canada to economically harm the USA, large-scale tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on both.” This announcement is reshaping the Western political landscape.
Trump is reshaping the geopolitical world
Carney declared that Canada’s relationship with the United States is over in response to the latest tariffs and threats from President Trump. While Canada may have been hit hardest by Trump’s new vision for America, they seem to have come to the realization that Trump has fundamentally changed the relationship between the two nations. Canada isn’t alone in this realization. Mexico, the EU, and the UK have all been targeted and are gradually recognizing that America is no longer the friendly state it once was.
Trump’s foreign policies are fostering an increasingly isolationist America. This is creating a significant rift in the Western world, and Trump appears more interested in doing business with Russia than engaging with America’s North American or European partners.
Countries like Australia, Japan, and India are also wary of tariffs. However, they benefit from their proximity to China. Whether or not Trump wants to target these countries, he will need them in any potential conflict with China, which provides them with a measure of safety.
Canada is no different
The countries Trump has targeted are not significantly different from Canada. Many larger developed nations have GDPs in the 2–4 trillion dollar (USD) range, which pales in comparison to America’s 30+ trillion dollar GDP. They have no realistic way to retaliate, and neither does Canada. Mexico is quietly acquiescing to Trump’s demands while attempting to negotiate better terms. Mexican officials are hoping that conditions will normalize once Trump leaves office.
Canada, however, is approaching an election. Trump has also threatened Canada’s sovereignty, boosting national pride and providing excellent election campaign material. As a result, Canadian politicians are mounting a stronger resistance. They may eventually have to concede and work with Trump; the question remains how much damage will occur before that happens.
The European Connection
As noted, most individual countries have small economies compared to the U.S., which makes it challenging to oppose the U.S. However, the European Union can present a unified front with the combined economic power and trade expertise to counter the U.S. economically.
They don’t have to yield to Trump’s threats—and they haven’t. Things such as Brussels pledge to increase defense spending are indicative of Europe’s resolve to stand against Trump and America. The key takeaway is that as America and Europe grow increasingly divided, repairing that rift will take longer—if it’s possible at all. While other nations can’t afford to lose ties with the world’s largest economy, the EU can.
Putting the pieces together
This brings us back to the start: Trump’s threat and Carney’s visit to France and the UK as his first act as Prime Minister. It seems likely that there is more to this visit than meets the eye.
Trump likely didn’t issue the threat without basis. He may have received intelligence suggesting that the EU was collaborating with Canada on a plan. If such a plan exists, it probably involves the UK and possibly other nations. This would explain Carney’s activities in Europe. He clearly has political connections in those countries.
If Canada secures support from the UK and the EU to challenge the U.S., we’re looking at a combined GDP of approximately $26 trillion compared to America’s $30 trillion. If this agreement is in progress, we might hear an announcement from Carney before the election ends. Such an agreement could secure his victory.
Shortly after this posting President Trump posted the following on truth social.
It remains to be seen what implications this could have if any. Some speculate this could be Trump trying to influence the election by suggesting Carney is going to appease the American President. Other commended Carney’s pollical prowess noting the use of “Prime Minister” by Trump (who notably referred to former PM Trudeau as “Governor”). Another possibility is that Trump doesn’t want to get into a trade war with a united EU/UK/Canada and is now willing to negotiate more with Canada.